The Epicenter of the “Unforeseen” Has Shifted — From Disaster Preparedness to Supply Chains, and Now to Geopolitics

On March 11, 2026 — fifteen years after the Great East Japan Earthquake — I attended two back-to-back geopolitics lectures online: Prof. Yu Koizumi (UTokyo) on Japan’s evolving security environment, and Dr. Andrew Staples (GeoPol Asia / GLOBIS) on Geopolitics for Business. Wanted to leave lecture notes and reflections, -from nuclear deterrence and the Stability–Instability Paradox to supply chain redesign, Japan’s leapfrog dilemma, and the foresight of the 1980 Ohira Report. HiroshiHiroshi is a project manager specialising in international manufacturing operations, based in Tokyo. Originally from Hokkaido, he has lived and worked across Malaysia, Switzerland, China, the United States, Sweden, and the Philippines — a breadth of experience that shapes both his professional methodology and the perspective he brings to this blog. His academic foundation is in international relations, and his career has centred on cross-border project management, organisational development, and operations management across multiple industries and geographies. In addition to his professional work, he has led large-scale international projects engaging participants from more than 150 countries, completed a cross-continental cycling expedition through North America, and contributed to disaster relief efforts following major natural disasters in Japan. This blog covers travel, productivity, technology, and the realities of living and working across cultures. Content is grounded in firsthand experience and independent research. hiroshi.today